Spatiotemporal variations and risk characteristics of potential non-point source pollution driven by LUCC in the Loess Plateau Region, China

With increasing human activities, regional substrate conditions have undergone significant changes. These changes have resulted in temporal and spatial variations of non-point source pollution sources, which has a significant impact on the quality of the regional soil, surface water, and groundwater environments. This study focused on the human-disturbed Loess Plateau region and used an enhanced potential non-point-source pollution index (PNPI) model to explore the dynamic changes of regional potential non-point-source pollution (PNP) and the associated risk due to land use and land cover change (LUCC) over the past 31 years. The Loess Plateau region is mainly composed of cultivated land, grassland and forest, which together account for 93.5% of the watershed area. From 1990 to 2020, extensive soil and water conservation measures were implemented throughout the Loess Plateau region, resulting in a significant reduction in the non-point source pollution risk. Using the quantile classification method, the study area’s PNP risk values were categorized into five distinct levels. The results revealed a polarization phenomenon of PNP risk in the region, with an increase in non-point source pollution risk in the human-influenced areas and a rapid expansion of the very high-risk area. However, the non-point source pollution risk in the upstream water source area of the watershed reduced over the study period. In recent years, the rapid urbanization of the Loess Plateau region has been the primary reason for the rapid expansion of the very high PNP risk area throughout the watershed. This study highlights the significant impact of LUCC on the dynamic changes in PNP risk within the Loess Plateau region, providing crucial insights into future conservation and urban planning policies aimed at enhancing the ecological health and environmental quality of the region.