Dynamics of Air Temperature Changes According to Long-Term Observations of the Mikhelson Meteorological Observatory

The purpose of the research is to establish the influence of global climate warming on the dynamics of air temperature changes in the Moscow region. The article verifies the main hypothesis about regional climate warming based on the analysis of unique continuous long-term observations of air temperature in the period from 1879 to 2022 according to the data of the Mikhelson Meteorological Observatory. The trends of changes in air temperature by annual and seasonal values for 144 years are presented, which indicate its increase during the entire observation period. It is established that almost all the considered statistical series can be characterized by the normal random variables distribution law. Cyclical changes in air temperature over all series relative to their long-term average values and the periods of significant temperature increase were revealed. The period’s falls on the last three decades both relatively to annual values and their seasonal time intervals, using statistical criteria, it was found that the periods are heterogeneous both to previous years of observations and to the entire long-term series. Such fact proves the warming of the climate of the region over the past decades, especially in winter. Positive changes in the elements of the thermal balance predetermine the need for research on the possible expansion of the area of agricultural crops for cultivation in the Moscow region. Based on a comprehensive analysis and logical conclusions, a hypothesis has been put forward about the influence of urban development on the increase in air temperature, however, it is not possible to establish the share of such influence, as well as the share due to other factors.