CLIMATE SENSITIVITY OF RICE CROP IN INDIA

The study examines the vulnerability of rice crop producers to climate change in India using district-level panel data for sixteen years (1998-99 to 2013-14) till 2100AD. The study shows that the mean maximum temperature is all set to rise and affect the rice crop net revenue adversely, especially in Northeast India. The fallouts further predict a considerable decrease in net revenue of rice crop is highest in the North region and the net revenue in rice cultivation is likely to decline by 20.04 per cent in all India (when compared to the base period, i.e., 2013-14). This decline was more pronounced in Peninsular India (63.95 per cent) as compared to other regions of India. The deductions disclose that the North region and Peninsular region have a maximum decrease of 1.69 per cent and 22.58 per cent respectively in rice crop net revenue is estimated during the first decadal interval (2020-40) and decrease in the rate of loss over the successive decadal intervals. The study advocates for raising the net crop revenue of the rice crop by way of enhancing its production through short-duration, climate-responsive varieties on the one hand and reduction in the cost of cultivation of rice crop, on the other hand. The findings further necessities the expansion of micro-irrigation projects and rainwater harvesting at a broader scale to cope with the dangerous anthropogenic consequences of climate change. Furthermore, the study estimated a non-uniform decline in rice crop net revenue over four climatic scenarios per decadal interval.