Contribution to the Net-Zero Emissions Target from the Transport Sector through Electric Mobility—A Case of Kathmandu Valley

Globally, the transportation sector stands as the third largest contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Nepal is no exception, relying entirely on imported petroleum products. The capital city of Nepal, Kathmandu Valley, with its unique bowl-shaped topography, faces major urban challenges including inadequate mobility and poor air quality. This paper aims to investigate the magnitude of GHG emissions from conventional vehicles within Kathmandu Valley and analyze the counter-role of electric mobility in creating a more livable city. This study conducted a primary survey to estimate transport energy consumption and mobility characteristics for the base year 2022. The Low Emission Analysis Platform (LEAP) served as the modeling tool to forecast energy consumption and quantify associated GHG emissions in three scenarios: business-as-usual (BAU), sustainable development (SD), and net-zero emission (NZE). Additionally, this study estimated co-benefits, focusing on local pollutant reductions. With the present trend of increasing urbanization, motorization, and development, GHG emissions from the transportation sector are projected to more than triple by 2050 in the BAU scenario. Widespread adoption of electric mobility in the SD scenario would achieve up to a 95% reduction in GHG emissions by 2050. The NZE scenario foresees complete electrification and hydrogen-based vehicles by 2045, achieving complete abatement of both GHG emissions and local pollutants. The SD and NZE scenarios will require, respectively, 64% and 84% less energy than the BAU scenario, along with 74% and 100% reductions in petroleum consumption by 2050. These reductions contribute to enhanced energy security and energy sustainability. Achieving the SD and NZE scenarios will require approximately 1048 GWh and 1390 GWh of additional electricity solely for Kathmandu Valley by 2050. This paper is expected to provide valuable insights for policy implementors, transport planners, and city administrators to develop effective action plans and policies aimed at improving pollution levels and making cities in developing countries more livable and sustainable.