Inclusive finance, industrial structure upgrading and farmers’ income: Empirical analysis based on provincial panel data in China

This paper empirically studies the relationship among inclusive finance, industrial structure upgrading and farmers’ income, using the panel data of 28 provinces in China from 2006 to 2016.The research finds that inclusive finance can significantly promote the increase of farmers’ income. Moreover, the Upgrading of Industry Structure (UIS) is the intermediary mechanism of inclusive finance to promote the increase of farmers’ income, and this intermediary mechanism is heterogeneous among farmers with different income levels. Finally, the promotion effect of the UIS on farmers’ income is affected by the threshold effect of inclusive finance. Compared with the development level of low inclusive finance, the promotion effect of the UIS on farmers’ income is stronger under the development level of high inclusive finance. According to the results of empirical analysis, we suggest that the development strategy of inclusive finance should aim at the industrial development in rural areas, promote the organic connection between farmers and modern agricultural industry, and drive farmers to increase their income through the transformation and upgrading of rural industries.